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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 272 (Idalia) , Major: 272 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 272 (Idalia) Major: 272 (Idalia)
 
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#1149583 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 PM 26.Aug.2023)
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
0300 UTC SUN AUG 27 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 86.4W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 230 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 86.4W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 86.3W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 20.9N 86.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.9N 86.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.6N 85.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 90SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 23.1N 85.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 70SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 25.0N 85.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 27.5N 84.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 80SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 32.7N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 35.2N 76.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 86.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 27/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG