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| #1149586 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 PM 26.Aug.2023) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023 1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.1N 86.4W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM NE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch for Pinar del Rio to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel * Pinar del Rio Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Isle of Youth Cuba A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in Florida should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 86.4 West. The depression is drifting toward the southwest near 2 mph (4 km/h) and is likely to meander near the Yucatan Channel through early Monday. A faster motion toward the north or north-northeast is expected on Monday, bringing the system over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Sunday and a hurricane by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Ten can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Ten is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher amounts of 10 inches, across portions of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula. Across western Cuba, rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, are expected. This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides across western Cuba. Heavy rainfall is also likely to impact portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and the Southeast by mid to late next week. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over portions of the warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday and western Cuba Sunday night or Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the Isle of Youth Sunday night or Monday. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg |
