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#1149628 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:12 AM 27.Aug.2023)
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
400 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

...DEPRESSION MEANDERING NEAR YUCATAN...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 86.8W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel
* Pinar del Rio Cuba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Isle of Youth Cuba

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Florida should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was
located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 86.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the south near 5 mph (7 km/h), and
it is likely to meander near the Yucatan Channel through early
Monday. A faster motion toward the north or north-northeast is
expected later on Monday, bringing the system over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm later
today and a hurricane by Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Ten can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO
header WTNT45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Ten is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:

Portions of the eastern Yucatan: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated higher
totals of 6 inches.

Western Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10
inches.

Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and
southern Georgia: From Tuesday into Wednesday, 3 to 6 inches, with
isolated higher totals of 10 inches.

Heavy rainfall is also likely to spread into portions of the
Carolinas by Wednesday into Thursday.

This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides
across western Cuba. Scattered flash and urban flooding can also be
expected across portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida
Panhandle and portions of the Southeast U.S. by Tuesday into
Thursday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over portions
of the warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula today and western
Cuba tonight or Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area on the Isle of Youth tonight or Monday.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore
winds.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake