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#1149629 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:15 AM 27.Aug.2023)

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
400 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

The small circulation of Tropical Depression Ten continues to be
well-defined in Cancun radar, with the center moving across Cozumel
during the past few hours. Data from a Weatherflow sensor on the
island indicated that the pressure dropped to about 1001 mb, with
sustained winds of about 30 kt. A small burst of convection has
formed just south of the center recently, with scattered banding
features in the eastern semicircle. Most of the satellite
estimates are just shy of tropical storm strength, so the initial
winds speed will stay 30 kt. Both Air Force Reserve and NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be in the system later this morning
to get a better look at the structure and winds.

The depression has turned southward tonight, moving at about 4 kt,
apparently rotating around the western periphery of its larger
parent circulation to the east. Little net motion is expected for
about a day as steering currents remain weak. After that time, a
developing trough over the Gulf of Mexico and stronger ridging over
the western Atlantic is expected to lift the system toward the north
and north-northeast over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This track
takes the system toward Florida, and then near the southeastern
coast of the U.S. The overnight model guidance is a bit farther
west and slower than the last cycle, probably due to the depression
being further south than anticipated. Thus, the NHC forecast is
nudged westward, and lies on the east side of the guidance envelope.
These are small changes overall, and the track should be considered
lower confidence until it starts moving in a more consistent manner.
The NOAA G-IV aircraft should be in the area this afternoon to
help smooth out the model differences along with special upper-air
soundings scheduled across many areas of the southeastern United

The very warm and deep waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
Gulf of Mexico should support at least gradual strengthening during
the next few days, tempered by moderate shear from a flat upper-
level trough. However, this trough is forecast to amplify over the
western Gulf of Mexico around Tuesday, which causes the shear to
decrease near the cyclone in that time frame. There`s a notable
risk of rapid intensification while the system moves across the
record warm eastern and northeastern Gulf of Mexico, which is
highlighted by the recent HAFS and HWRF guidance. The new NHC
forecast is raised from the previous one, near or above the model
consensus, and could be too low. I`m reluctant to make any big
changes to the forecast until we get more in-situ data, but the
upward overnight model trend certainly bears watching. Users are
reminded to continue monitoring forecasts for any changes to the
system`s expected intensity as it approaches Florida.


1. Heavy rainfall from Tropical Depression Ten is expected across
the eastern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. The heavy rainfall
may produce areas of flash and urban flooding, as well as
landslides, across western Cuba. The depression is forecast to
become a tropical storm later today, and tropical storm conditions
are expected over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and extreme
western Cuba where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical
storm conditions are possible on the Isle of Youth, where a Tropical
Storm Watch is in effect.

2. The depression is forecast to strengthen during the next few days
and could become a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico,
bringing a potential of dangerous storm surge, heavy rainfall, and
strong winds to portions of the west coast of Florida and the
Florida Panhandle by the middle of this week. Heavy rainfall is
also likely to spread into portions of the Southeast U.S. by mid to
late week. Although it is too soon to specify the exact location
and magnitude of these impacts, residents in these areas should
monitor updates to the forecast of this system and ensure that they
have their hurricane plan in place.


INIT 27/0900Z 20.1N 86.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 20.1N 86.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 20.6N 86.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 21.7N 86.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 23.3N 86.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 29/1800Z 25.7N 85.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 28.5N 84.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 31/0600Z 33.0N 81.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/0600Z 35.0N 75.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER

Forecaster Blake