|
Show Selection: |
| #1149659 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 AM 27.Aug.2023) TCDAT3 Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 27 2023 Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Franklin this morning and found Franklin a little stronger, with the pressure down a few millibars to 971mb. Latest visible and infrared satellite imagery show an eye developing with a cold core of deep convection wrapping around the center. The aircraft reconnaissance reported that the eye was closed in the most recent vortex fix. They also reported a concentric band forming around the eyewall, which may be the stages of an eyewall replacement cycle. Satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB, remained steady this advisory. However, given the improved satellite depiction in the last few hours and data from the hurricane hunters, the initial intensity is raised to 85kt. Environmental conditions are fairly favorable during the next few days, with very warm sea surface temperature and decreasing deep-layer wind shear. Steady strengthening is forecast and Franklin could become a major hurricane later tonight or tomorrow. The intensity forecast remains similar to the previous one and lies near the consensus aids, HCCA and IVCN. Weakening is forecast in about 3 to 4 days, as Franklin encounters increased shear and moves over cooler SSTs. The wind field of Franklin is forecast to increase in size as it moves into the mid-latitudes. Franklin has continued to move northwestward at 7kt this morning. The near-term forecast has been nudged slightly west of the previous advisory. A broad high-pressure ridge to the east of Franklin will steer the system more north-northwestward and northward the next couple of days. In the longer range of the forecast period, a deep trough is expected to move off the U.S. east coast and most of the guidance has Franklin becoming captured in the southwesterly flow, with an increase in forward motion to the northeast. The main exception is the ECMWF, which is the furthest right once again this forecast cycle. The official forecast track lies near the model consensus aids, in the middle of the guidance suite. The NHC forecast track still has the core of Franklin passing west and north of Bermuda, but interest there should continue to monitor the latest NHC forecast. By Day 5 or just beyond the forecast period, Franklin may begin to interact with the upper trough and begin an extratropical transition. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 25.1N 69.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 26.0N 70.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 27.4N 70.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 28.9N 70.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 30.4N 70.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 30/0000Z 31.9N 69.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 33.4N 67.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 31/1200Z 36.6N 60.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 01/1200Z 40.6N 52.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly/Pasch |
