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| #1149675 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:47 PM 27.Aug.2023) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Idalia Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023 100 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023 ...IDALIA BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.0N 85.8W ABOUT 80 MI...135 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel * Pinar del Rio Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Isle of Youth Cuba A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in Florida should monitor the progress of this system. Storm surge and hurricane watches for portions of the Florida west coast will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 85.8 West. Idalia is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h), and it is likely to meander near the Yucatan Channel through tonight. A faster motion toward the north is expected on Monday, bringing the system over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Idalia is expected to become a hurricane by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Portions of the eastern Yucatan: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated higher totals of 6 inches. Western Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10 inches. Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia: From Tuesday into Wednesday, 3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10 inches. Heavy rainfall is also likely to spread into portions of the Carolinas by Wednesday into Thursday. This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides across western Cuba. Scattered flash and urban flooding can also be expected across portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle and portions of the Southeast U.S. by Tuesday into Thursday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula today and western Cuba later today or Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the Isle of Youth later today or Monday. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch |
