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| #1149706 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 PM 27.Aug.2023) TCDAT3 Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023 500 PM AST Sun Aug 27 2023 Visible and infrared satellite imagery has improved slightly since this morning, with a tight inner core developing around the center. There have been hints of an eye developing in infrared and visible images throughout the day, but the eye remains cloud filled. Franklin is still dealing with a little bit of drier mid-level dry air trying to wrap into the eastern side. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates have remained steady throughout the day today. With these estimates combined with the lower surface pressure reported by the aircraft, the initial intensity remains at 85 kt this advisory. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be investigating the system later this evening. Environmental conditions are fairly favorable for the next few days, with very warm sea surface temperatures and vertical wind shear forecast to decrease. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and Franklin could become a major hurricane on Monday. In about 3 to 4 days, weakening is forecast as Franklin encounters increased shear and moves over cooler SSTs. The wind field of Franklin is forecast to increase in size as it moves into the mid-latitudes. Franklin is moving northwestward at 8 kt, around a broad high-pressure ridge to the east of Franklin. This ridge will steer the system more north-northwestward and northward over the next couple of days. In the longer range of the forecast period, a deep trough is expected to move off the U.S. east coast, and most of the guidance has Franklin becoming captured in the southwesterly flow, with an increase in forward motion to the northeast. The official NHC forecast track lies near the model consensus aids, with only slight adjustments to the previous advisory. The NHC forecast track still has the core of Franklin passing west and north of Bermuda, but interests there should continue to monitor the latest NHC forecasts. By day 5, Franklin may begin to interact with the upper trough and begin an extratropical transition, although that is not explicitly forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 25.9N 70.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 27.0N 70.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 28.5N 71.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 30.0N 70.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 31.5N 69.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 30/0600Z 33.2N 68.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 34.5N 65.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 31/1800Z 37.1N 58.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 01/1800Z 41.0N 50.8W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly/Pasch |
