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| #1149731 (Received by flhurricane at: 8:03 PM 27.Aug.2023) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Idalia Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023 700 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023 ...IDALIA A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 85.4W ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel * Pinar del Rio Cuba A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Chokoloskee to Indian Pass Florida, including Tampa Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Englewood to Indian Pass Florida, including Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Isle of Youth Cuba * South of Englewood to Chokoloskee Florida * Dry Tortugas Florida A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests along the southeastern U.S. coast should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required on Monday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 85.4 West. Idalia is moving toward the east-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow, possibly erratic, motion is expected overnight. A generally northward to north-northeastward motion at an increasing forward speed is expected on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center will move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday, and approach the northeastern Gulf coast late Tuesday. Buoy observations indicate that Idalia`s maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Idalia is expected to become a hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early Tuesday. Additional strengthening is likely while Idalia approaches the northeastern Gulf coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. NOAA buoy 42056 over the far northwestern Caribbean Sea recently reported a sustained wind of 42 mph (68 km/h) and a wind gust to 49 mph (79 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Aucilla River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...7-11 ft Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-8 ft Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL...4-7 ft Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...3-5 ft Tampa Bay...3-5 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...2-4 ft Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...2-4 ft Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft Florida Keys...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba through Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the Isle of Youth on Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by late Tuesday or Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Dry Tortugas beginning late Monday and within the tropical storm watch area along the Florida Gulf coast on Tuesday. RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Portions of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated higher totals of 6 inches. Western Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10 inches. Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia: From Tuesday into Wednesday, 3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10 inches. Heavy rainfall is also likely to spread into portions of the Carolinas by Wednesday into Thursday. This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides across western Cuba. Scattered flash and urban flooding can also be expected across portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle and portions of the Southeast U.S. by Tuesday into Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg |
