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No development is expected in the Atlantic over the next two days, but our eyes are turning to the Caribbean as conditions for development improve heading into November
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 20 (Milton) , Major: 20 (Milton) Florida - Any: 20 (Milton) Major: 20 (Milton)
 
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#1149792 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 AM 28.Aug.2023)
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM IDALIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
0900 UTC MON AUG 28 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 85.2W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 85.2W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 85.2W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 21.1N 85.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 40SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.6N 85.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 10NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 24.8N 84.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 27.7N 84.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 30SE 15SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 150SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 30.7N 82.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 160SE 70SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 32.8N 79.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 160SE 80SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 34.5N 72.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 34.5N 67.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 85.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 28/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE