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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 272 (Idalia) , Major: 272 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 272 (Idalia) Major: 272 (Idalia)
 
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#1149908 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:53 PM 28.Aug.2023)
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM IDALIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
2100 UTC MON AUG 28 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 85.1W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 130SE 50SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 85.1W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 85.2W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.7N 85.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 45SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 24.9N 85.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 27.6N 84.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 30.4N 82.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 140SE 90SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 32.7N 80.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 150SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 34.0N 76.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 70SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 34.1N 71.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 34.0N 69.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 85.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 29/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN