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There is currently nothing on the horizon tropically in the Atlantic before Hurricane Season starts on June 1st.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 265 (Idalia) , Major: 265 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 265 (Idalia) Major: 265 (Idalia)
 
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#1149970 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:09 PM 28.Aug.2023)
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Idalia Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023

Idalia is producing intense bursts of convection near the center,
with an overall comma-shaped cloud pattern along with a dry slot
over the western part of the circulation. Upper-level outflow is
restricted over the northwestern quadrant. Radar images from
the Meteorological Service of Cuba show a partial eyewall forming.
Flight-level and dropwindsonde data from NOAA and Air Force aircraft
indicate that Idalia is very near hurricane strength. The maximum
winds are set again to 60 kt for this advisory.

The system has moved a bit slower than earlier today with an
initial motion estimate of just slightly east of due north at
around 7 kt. Idalia should be steered northward along the western
side of a mid-level ridge and then turn north-northeastward due to
a trough to its northwest. This track will take the center across
the northeastern Gulf coast on Wednesday morning, and over
northern Florida and southeastern Georgia thereafter. In 2 to 3
days, a mid-tropospheric trough moving off the eastern U.S. coast
will likely cause the tropical cyclone to turn northeastward to
eastward off the coast of the Carolinas. The official track
forecast for this advisory is essentially the same as the previous
one. This is near the middle of the track guidance, which are
fairly tightly clustered, with the GFS on the left side and the
ECMWF on the right side.

Although Idalia is currently experiencing some moderate
northwesterly vertical wind shear, the dynamical guidance indicates
that the shear will lessen while the system is over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico. This, along with a conducive thermodynamic
atmospheric environment and high oceanic heat content, should cause
Idalia to strengthen rapidly in the 12- to 36-hour time frame. The
official intensity forecast, like the previous one, shows the system
becoming a major hurricane before landfall along the Florida Gulf
coast. This is in general agreement with the regional hurricane
hurricane models, HAFS and HWRF, but above much of the other
intensity guidance.

Idalia is forecast to move into an area that is highly susceptible
to storm surge, and regardless of the cyclone`s specific landfall
intensity, there is increasing confidence that a significant storm
surge event will occur.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning
is in effect, including Tampa Bay and the Big Bend region of
Florida. Inundation of 8 to 12 feet above ground level is expected
somewhere between Chassahowitzka and Aucilla River. Residents in
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
Hurricane Warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast, with the
potential for destructive winds where the core of Idalia moves
onshore. Strong winds will also spread inland across portions of
northern Florida near the track of the center of Idalia.

3. Heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Idalia is expected across
portions of western Cuba and may produce areas of flash and urban
flooding as well as landslides. Areas of flash and urban flooding,
some of which may be locally significant, are expected across
portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and
southern Georgia Tuesday into Wednesday, spreading into portions of
the eastern Carolinas Wednesday into Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 22.0N 85.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 23.7N 85.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 26.2N 84.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 29.0N 83.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 31.5N 81.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 31/1200Z 33.2N 78.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 01/0000Z 34.0N 76.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 33.5N 72.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 03/0000Z 33.0N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch