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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 272 (Idalia) , Major: 272 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 272 (Idalia) Major: 272 (Idalia)
 
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#1150020 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:14 AM 29.Aug.2023)
TCDAT5

Hurricane Idalia Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
400 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023

Radar data from western Cuba indicates that Idalia is becoming
better organized. Most of an eyewall has formed, with much more
curvature in the banding features and overall radar pattern.
Satellite imagery also shows the center of Idalia firmly within the
central dense overcast. Thus, the initial wind speed is raised to
65 kt, in accordance with the latest TAFB satellite classification.

The hurricane is accelerating northward this morning, now moving at
about 9 kt. Idalia should move faster to the north or
north-northeast through landfall on Wednesday between mid-level
ridging over Florida and a trough dropping into the western Gulf of
Mexico. There has been a westward shift in the model guidance
overnight, perhaps due to the trough tugging Idalia more
northward before taking a north-northeast turn. It should be
noted that the ECMWF ensemble shows many of its strongest members
on the eastern side of its guidance envelope, which is a
reasonable place to be given the synoptic pattern. The new NHC
forecast is adjusted a little to the west but is now east of the
model consensus on the eastern side of the reliable model guidance.
After Idalia leaves the eastern United States coastline, the track
forecast becomes highly uncertain and little change was made to the
previous forecast.

With an inner core now present, the stage is set for Idalia to
rapidly intensify before landfall. Shear should continue to lower
over the cyclone as an upper-level trough departs the northeastern
Gulf of Mexico and ridging builds closer to the cyclone. These
changes, combined with extremely warm and deep waters the hurricane
will be traversing, all strongly point to rapid intensification.
The new forecast is similar to the previous one, and confidence is
increasing in an extremely dangerous major hurricane making landfall
Wednesday along the west coast or Big Bend region of Florida.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning
is in effect, including Tampa Bay and the Big Bend region of
Florida. Inundation of 8 to 12 feet above ground level is expected
somewhere between Chassahowitzka and Aucilla River. Residents in
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
Hurricane Warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast, with the
potential for destructive winds where the core of Idalia moves
onshore. Strong winds will also spread inland across portions of
northern Florida near the track of the center of Idalia.

3. Heavy rainfall is expected across portions of western Cuba and
may produce areas of flash and urban flooding as well as landslides.
Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of
Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia beginning today
into Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas
Wednesday into Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 23.1N 85.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 24.9N 84.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 27.8N 84.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 30.6N 82.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
48H 31/0600Z 32.7N 80.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 31/1800Z 33.8N 77.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 01/0600Z 33.9N 74.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 33.3N 71.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 03/0600Z 32.5N 70.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake