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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 272 (Idalia) , Major: 272 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 272 (Idalia) Major: 272 (Idalia)
 
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#1150070 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 AM 29.Aug.2023)
TCMAT5

HURRICANE IDALIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
1500 UTC TUE AUG 29 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 84.8W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT.......100NE 140SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 150SE 60SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 84.8W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 84.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 26.5N 84.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 29.3N 83.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 150SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 31.8N 81.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 140SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 33.5N 78.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 120SE 70SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 34.1N 75.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 33.8N 73.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 60SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 32.5N 70.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 32.0N 68.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 84.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 29/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG