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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 272 (Idalia) , Major: 272 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 272 (Idalia) Major: 272 (Idalia)
 
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#1150134 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 PM 29.Aug.2023)
TCMAT5

HURRICANE IDALIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
2100 UTC TUE AUG 29 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 84.8W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT.......120NE 140SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 84.8W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 84.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 28.3N 84.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 160SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 31.0N 82.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 15NW.
34 KT... 90NE 170SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 32.9N 80.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 160SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 33.9N 77.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 33.8N 74.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 33.3N 71.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 50SE 80SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 32.3N 69.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 31.7N 69.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.1N 84.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 30/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG