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| #1150203 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:06 PM 29.Aug.2023) TCDAT3 Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 29 2023 Cloud tops are beginning to warm around Franklin`s rather large eye. A GMI microwave pass at 0136 UTC showed that the southern edge of the eyewall was beginning to erode. The hurricane passed over NOAA buoy 41048 around 00 UTC and measured a central pressure of 955 mb with 20 kt of wind. The initial intensity has been lowered to 100 kt for this advisory and is closest to the TAFB estimate. Franklin is moving to the northeast at 10 kt. This motion is expected to continue for the next day or so as the hurricane moves around the northwest periphery of a subtropical ridge. Beyond 24 h, Franklin is expected to begin interacting with a trough moving off the northeast coast of the US and turn to the east-northeast with an increase in forward speed. However, global model guidance has significantly decreased the forward motion of the storm and the along-track position uncertainty remains higher than normal. The new official track forecast has shifted slightly south of the previous prediction and has slowed noticeably. Even though the center of Franklin is forecast to pass to the northwest of Bermuda on Wednesday, tropical-storm-force winds associated with the hurricane are expected to extend well to the southeast of the center. Franklin appears to be starting a gradual weakening trend. In a day so, model guidance suggests the vertical wind shear should increase as it gets caught in the upper-level trough. Franklin is still expected to complete its extratropical transition around day 3 and dissipate by the end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast has been lowered slightly from the previous cycle and remains close the various consensus aids. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning Wednesday morning, when Franklin is forecast to make its closest approach to the island. 2. Life-threatening surf and rip currents are occurring along the east coast of the United States. These conditions are expected to continue during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 32.3N 69.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 33.5N 67.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 31/0000Z 34.7N 65.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 31/1200Z 35.8N 61.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 36.8N 58.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 01/1200Z 38.3N 53.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 02/0000Z 40.3N 49.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 03/0000Z 45.2N 41.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci |
