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| #1150333 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 AM 30.Aug.2023) TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 30 2023 The depression had a large burst of convection this morning. Scatterometer missed the system this morning, so we did not get any data of the wind field with this convective burst. A blend of subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are still around 30 kt, and the intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory cycle. The depression continues to meander over the central Atlantic. It is expected to slowly move northward later today, and then a little faster northward by Thursday. The NHC track forecast is slower in short-term than the previous forecast, given the initial slow motion, and lies near the corrected consensus aids. The intensity forecast remains unchanged from the previous forecast. The depression still may briefly strengthen into a very short-lived tropical storm, but most of the guidance keep the system as a depression. As the system moves northward it will encounter an environment of dry air and increased shear. The depression is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low in about day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 28.3N 52.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 31/0000Z 28.6N 52.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 31/1200Z 29.5N 52.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 31.1N 52.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 01/1200Z 33.3N 51.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly/Brown |
