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| #1150561 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:02 AM 31.Aug.2023) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023 500 AM AST Thu Aug 31 2023 Convection since the prior advisory has become markedly better organized on infrared and shortwave-IR imagery. Instead of the bursting pattern exhibited the prior two nights, there is more evidence of curved banding, which was noted on the GMI microwave pass last evening and a more recent AMSR2 pass at 0458 UTC. Subjective estimates form TAFB and SAB were both T2.5/35 kt, and the latest SATCON estimate was up to 37 kt. All these data suggest the depression has become tropical storm Jose, and 35 kt is the initial intensity this advisory. Jose has certainly been in no hurry to move anywhere the last couple of days, but may finally be starting a more northward motion, now estimated at 350/5 kt. Part of the storm`s previous lack of motion was related to competing steering influences from mid-level ridging both to its north and south, keeping the small cycle parked in place. However, The large circulation of Hurricane Franklin approaching from the west should break this steering stalemate. Jose is forecast to soon accelerate northward as it becomes swept up in the larger hurricane`s circulation. The track guidance is in good agreement with this solution, and the track forecast was largely an update of the previous advisory. Despite Jose becoming a tropical storm, it does not appear likely to intensify very much more. While vertical wind shear is currently low, it should rapidly increase as Jose accelerates north and Franklin`s outflow increases the upper-level flow from the opposite direction. Most of the guidance shows Jose getting absorbed by Franklin by the weekend, and the latest NHC intensity forecast shows this solution occuring in 48 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 28.8N 52.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 30.3N 52.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 32.6N 52.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 36.4N 51.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 02/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRANKLIN $$ Forecaster Papin |
