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| #1150664 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 PM 31.Aug.2023) TCDAT3 Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number 45 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023 500 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2023 The cloud pattern of Franklin has continued to erode this afternoon. Deep convection is limited to the southeastern portion of its circulation, as strong shear continues to negatively affect the system. Scatterometer data from today show the hurricane is still producing a very large area of winds greater than 50 kt, though the resolution limitations of the instrument do not allow for a peak intensity estimate. The conventional satellite intensity estimates continue to decrease, and the initial intensity is lowered to 80 kt based on a blend of the latest objective and subjective estimates. Franklin is expected to lose tropical characteristics over the next day or so, with strong shear continuing over the system and intrusions of drier mid-level air into the circulation as it accelerates deeper into the mid-latitudes. However, this will not immediately lead to significant weakening of the system. The GFS and ECMWF both show an enhancement of hurricane-force winds on the western side of the storm while the system interacts with a baroclinic system and begins extratropical transition. Thus, the near-term intensity forecast shows little change in strength, and Franklin appears likely to maintain hurricane-force winds through its extratropical transition in 36 h. Thereafter, a faster weakening trend is shown through the rest of the forecast period, which is consistent with the latest multi-model consensus aids. The initial motion of Franklin is east-northeastward at 65/12 kt. A northeastward acceleration is forecast during the next couple of days while the cyclone moves within the flow between a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic and a deep-layer trough over Atlantic Canada. From there, the track guidance generally supports a continued northeastward motion over the northern Atlantic, and this forecast shows a slightly faster motion beyond day 3 to reflect the model consensus trends this cycle. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 36.0N 60.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 37.1N 57.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 38.9N 53.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 40.9N 49.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 02/1800Z 43.2N 45.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 03/0600Z 45.1N 41.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 03/1800Z 46.6N 37.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 04/1800Z 49.5N 31.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 05/1800Z 52.5N 27.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
