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| #1150665 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 PM 31.Aug.2023) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023 500 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2023 The cloud pattern of Jose has changed little since earlier today. Banding features are limited, and the convection near the center is not very deep at this time. The upper-level outflow is being impeded over the western portion of the circulation, suggestive of northwesterly shear over the system. The current intensity estimate remains at 35 kt in agreement with a subjective Dvorak T-number from TAFB. Latest center fixes indicate that the system is moving northward with increasing forward speed. The current motion estimate is 360/10 kt. During the next 12 to 24 hours Jose should continue to move generally northward, with a continued increase in forward speed, along the western side of a mid-level anticyclone, Then, the cyclone is likely to become entrained into the eastern portion of the larger circulation of Franklin. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and in good agreement with the global model solutions. Given the influence of nearby Franklin on both the low-level circulation and the upper-level outflow, Jose is not likely to strengthen significantly during the next day or so. The official forecast, like the previous one, shows the system dissipating after 24 hours since it is expected to be absorbed by Franklin by then. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 30.8N 52.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 33.1N 52.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 37.2N 51.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
