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| #1150683 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:51 PM 31.Aug.2023) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia Intermediate Advisory Number 21A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023 800 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2023 ...IDALIA PULLING AWAY FROM NORTH CAROLINA... ...EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.4N 72.2W ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM WNW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia was located near latitude 33.4 North, longitude 72.2 West. Idalia is moving toward the east near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the east-southeast and east is expected on Friday and Saturday, accompanied by a considerable decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Idalia will continue moving away from the coast of North Carolina and approach Bermuda over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast through Friday night. Restrengthening is possible over the weekend, and Idalia is expected to transition back to a tropical storm by Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. NOAA buoy 41002 well to the south of Cape Hatteras recently reported a sustained wind of 36 mph (57 km/h) and a gust to 47 mph (76 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated at the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas but should subside overnight... Beaufort Inlet, NC to Ocracoke Inlet, NC...1-3 ft Neuse and Bay Rivers...1-3 ft Pamlico and Pungo Rivers...1-3 ft Ocracoke Inlet, NC to Duck, NC...1-3 ft For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Gusts to tropical storm force are still possible along the coast of North Carolina through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda by Saturday. RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 5 to 7 inches (125 to 175 millimeters) across Bermuda through Sunday night. The heavy rainfall will likely lead to areas of flash and urban flooding on the island. SURF: Swells generated by Idalia will affect the southeastern U.S. coast during the next few days and will reach Bermuda on Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
