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| #1150760 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 AM 01.Sep.2023) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023 500 AM AST Fri Sep 01 2023 This morning`s satellite presentation consists of a compact, symmetric cloud pattern with intermittent deep convective bursts of convection near the surface center. An earlier AMSR2 microwave image revealed evidence of a small eye-like mid-level feature. Based on the much-improved structure, particularly in the microwave images, this advisory`s initial intensity is raised to 50 kt, but it could be stronger. The intensity philosophy remains unchanged. Increasing northerly shear associated with Hurricane Franklin`s outflow should weaken the cyclone. By early Saturday, Jose is forecast to become absorbed by Franklin and an intruding mid-latitude baroclinic system. Jose`s initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 005/16 kt. The small cyclone is being steered by the mid-tropospheric flow produced by a high pressure to the east over the central Atlantic and larger Hurricane Franklin approaching from the northwest. Jose is expected to accelerate northward through dissipation while the deep-layer southerly steering flow strengthens. The deterministic guidance agrees with this solution, and the NHC forecast lies close to the HFIP corrected consensus aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 33.9N 52.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 37.0N 51.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts |
