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| #1150795 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 AM 01.Sep.2023) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 01 2023 Deep convection is waning and becoming more asymmetric near the center of Jose on satellite imagery as northerly shear from Franklin`s outflow increases. The low-level center is starting to become exposed. Jose`s initial intensity is conservatively lowered to 45 kt for this advisory based on the automated Dvorak intensity estimate from UW-CIMSS and the degraded satellite structure of Jose. This lies near the average of the upper uncertainty bound from the CIMSS DMINT intensity estimate (which incorporated the overnight SSMIS microwave overpass) and the Dvorak estimates of 35 kt from TAFB and SAB. Jose is accelerating and the forward motion is currently estimated to be north-northeastward (15 degrees) at 20 kt. The increase in forward speed and interaction with Franklin could lead to a slight expansion of the tropical-storm-force winds on the east side of Jose. The tropical storm is expected to dissipate sometime tonight as it is absorbed by Franklin. The track forecast is slightly faster than the consensus aids based on the global model wind fields. Little intensity change is forecast as the fast forward speed of the system is likely to maintain stronger winds in the eastern semicircle, despite diminished convection. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 36.0N 50.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 39.5N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stevenson/Reinhart |
