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| #1150798 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 AM 01.Sep.2023) TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122023 200 PM CVT Fri Sep 01 2023 The area of low pressure over the far eastern Atlantic to the northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has developed a well-defined surface circulation with sufficiently organized deep convection to be classified as a tropical cyclone. Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are a consensus T2.5, but since the convection is loosely organized around the center, the initial intensity is started at 30 kt. Sea surface temperatures of 27-28 degrees Celsius and low vertical shear during the next day or so should allow the depression to strengthen to a tropical storm later today or on Saturday. However, the cyclone will be reaching marginally warm waters in 24-48 hours, and southerly shear is forecast to increase at about that same time. The NHC forecast therefore shows weakening beginning in 48 hours, and the system is likely to degenerate into a remnant low by 60 hours due to a loss of organized deep convection. The remnant low is shown dissipating by day 4, following the majority of the global model fields. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest (340 degrees) at 7 kt between a mid-level ridge over western Africa and a mid- to upper-level low located over the eastern Atlantic. The steering environment changes little during the next couple of days, and the depression is therefore expected to move toward the north-northwest or northwest, at a slightly faster speed, through 48 hours. After the cyclone becomes a shallower remnant low, lower-level flow is expected to turn the system toward the west-northwest until it dissipates. The track guidance is tightly clustered for the next 4 days, and the NHC track forecast is very close to the HCCA consensus aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 19.6N 28.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 21.0N 29.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 22.8N 30.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 24.3N 31.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 25.5N 32.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 26.0N 33.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/1200Z 26.4N 34.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg |
