|
Show Selection: |
| #1150805 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 AM 01.Sep.2023) TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Gert Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 01 2023 Gert`s structure hasn`t changed much since it regenerated, and it remains strongly sheared from the north. ASCAT is not expected to sample Gert this morning, so the 30-kt intensity is based entirely on a blend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The tropical depression appears to have continued its eastward track this morning. For the next day or so, a continued eastward track is likely. After that, the uncertainty is quite large. Over the weekend, Gert will likely begin to gain latitude as its steering is influenced by the much larger Idalia to its northwest, and a ridge to its east. However, the models have pretty large differences in how fast Gert may move once it begins to turn. Regardless of its exact track, by day 4, Gert should either become a poorly defined post-tropical cyclone or be absorbed into the circulation of Idalia. The NHC forecast is slower and farther south than the previous advisory to remain near the multi-model consensus. The shear currently affecting Gert will likely remain in place for the next few days, which covers about the entirety that Gert is expected to last as a tropical cyclone. Nonetheless, Gert is already very near the threshold to become a tropical storm again, and it would not take much increase in convection or organization for that to happen. Later in the forecast period, Gert is forecast to weaken and dissipate. Though there is a chance it could become post-tropical without being absorbed into Idalia, if that happens its low-level center will likely become poorly defined in the process, still resulting in dissipation for the purposes of this forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 28.7N 54.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 28.8N 53.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 28.9N 52.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 29.7N 52.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 30.5N 51.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 32.7N 51.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/1200Z 35.4N 51.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky |
