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| #1150918 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 PM 01.Sep.2023) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gert Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 01 2023 Gert remains relatively stationary to the southeast of Idalia. The tropical storm is quite compact and deep convection has been persisting, mostly to the south of the center. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are steady at 2.5/35 kt. but the other satellite estimates from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin are a little higher. Blending all of the satellite estimates supports increasing the intensity to 40 kt. Gert has barely moved during the past 12 hours as it is caught in weak steering currents between Idalia and a mid- to upper-level low over the central Atlantic. As Idalia moves closer to Gert, the storm is expected to turn northward on Saturday, and that motion should continue until it dissipates by early Monday. The storm has been resilient in an environment of strong northerly shear. Although the shear is expected to remain high, it seems likely that Gert will maintain its strength or weaken only slightly until it becomes absorbed by Idalia in a couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 28.2N 54.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 28.3N 54.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 29.1N 53.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 30.3N 53.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 32.0N 52.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
