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| #1151004 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 AM 02.Sep.2023) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gert Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 02 2023 Gert is one tough little cyclone. Satellite images indicate that deep convection continues near the center of the storm, despite northerly shear, and microwave data from this morning shows healthy banding structure. A scatterometer pass from 1259 UTC shows peak winds of just over 40 kt, which supports at least 45 kt due to the small size of Gert. The initial wind speed is raised to 45 kt, which also matches the latest TAFB Dvorak value and the UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate. The storm is moving a bit faster to the north-northeast this morning, roughly 3 kt, as it begins to feel the steering from Idalia to the west-northwest. Gert should accelerate north- northeastward later today and turn northward tomorrow around the eastern side of Idalia`s large circulation. All of the global models open Gert up into a trough of low pressure by 48 h due to rapidly increasing forward motion around Idalia, and the official forecast follows suit. Little change in strength is expected with Gert before it dissipates, although this system has been more resilient to shear than most small tropical cyclones. No significant changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast, with a small upward adjustment to the intensity forecast based on the initial value. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 27.8N 54.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 28.5N 53.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 30.1N 52.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 32.6N 51.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
