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| #1151164 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:38 AM 03.Sep.2023) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Katia Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122023 300 PM GMT Sun Sep 03 2023 Katia has a large, well-defined circulation on visible satellite imagery, but any associated deep convection is well north of the center. Intensity estimates are mostly at tropical-storm strength, so the initial wind speed is kept at 35 kt. Weakening should resume later today as a combination of southerly shear and very dry air in the mid-levels wipes out the rest of the deep convection. The global models continue to show no organized thunderstorm activity by tomorrow, and thus remnant low status is anticipated at that time. The storm is still moving northwest, but a bit slower at 6 kt. Katia is forecast to be steered between a large middle- to upper-tropospheric cut-off low to the west over the subtropical Atlantic and a northwest-to-southeast oriented mid-level ridge to the east during the next 36 hours or so. As the tropical cyclone weakens, it should get trapped within the low-level subtropical ridge, causing little motion in a couple of days, with the forecast remnants of Katia drifting southeastward at at long range. Other than a small northward adjustment based on the initial position, no notable changes were made to the NHC predicted track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 26.7N 32.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 27.3N 33.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 27.8N 33.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0000Z 28.3N 34.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1200Z 28.5N 34.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/0000Z 28.3N 34.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1200Z 27.8N 33.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
