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| #1151168 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 AM 03.Sep.2023) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gert Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 03 2023 Gert may finally be on the verge of weakening. Its low-level center has become exposed to the northeast of a shrinking area of convection. That said, Dvorak-based satellite intensity estimates have not started to decrease quite yet, so the intensity estimate remains 50 kt for this advisory. A drifting buoy just south of Gert`s center reported a minimum pressure of 999 mb at 1200 UTC, which also supports a minimum pressure similar to previous NHC estimates. Partial ASCAT or SAR data may be available later today to provide additional information on Gert`s wind field. Gert is accelerating north-northeastward. Additional acceleration is expected as Gert begins its anticipated rotation around the much larger circulation of Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia, located to the northwest of Gert. As Gert quickly rotates northward around the eastern side of Idalia, all available dynamical guidance indicates Gert will weaken slightly and open into a trough. The NHC forecast maintains Gert as a tropical cyclone a little longer than the models since most of them seem to be having trouble initializing the small tropical storm appropriately. The NHC track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts are all very similar to the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 31.2N 51.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 34.1N 51.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 38.8N 52.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky |
