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| #1151213 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 PM 03.Sep.2023) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gert Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023 500 PM AST Sun Sep 03 2023 All indications suggest that Gert is finally weakening. Gert`s center has been intermittently exposed since sunrise, displaced to the northeast from a small area of persistent deep convection. Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT have all decreased from earlier values. The initial intensity of 45 kt is a little above a consensus of the various satellite estimates, but I would rather only make a small change until we get a surface wind retrieval or another data set to help confirm the apparent weakening trend. Gert continues to accelerate toward the north-northeast. A turn northward as Gert continues to speed up and wrap around the eastern periphery of Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia should begin soon. Most models indicate that Gert will dissipate in the next 12 h or so, but the NHC forecast carries it through 24 h since Gert has repeatedly lasted longer than any model forecast indicated it should. The NHC track and intensity forecasts are again very similar to previous advisories, near the HCCA and simple consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 32.8N 51.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 36.1N 51.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 40.0N 54.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky |
