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| #1151247 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 PM 03.Sep.2023) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gert Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 03 2023 The low-level center of Gert is exposed in proxy-visible satellite images tonight. Recent ASCAT-B wind retrievals indicate the surface center is becoming elongated and less defined. There are still tropical-storm-force winds occurring in the eastern semicircle, with scatterometer winds as high as 40-42 kt. However, this is more a product of Gert`s translational speed than its paltry convective structure. Based on these data, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory. Gert is moving quickly northward (010/19 kt) while being captured within the broader cyclonic flow associated with Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia. Gert is forecast to accelerate northward to north-northwestward while it continues rounding the northeastern portion of Idalia`s circulation. The global models show Gert becoming absorbed on Monday, and the updated NHC forecast predicts dissipation by 24 h. However, it is entirely possible that Gert opens into a trough even sooner based on its current structure. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 35.4N 50.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 38.5N 52.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
