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| #1151291 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 AM 04.Sep.2023) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gert Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023 500 AM AST Mon Sep 04 2023 A small area of disorganized deep convection has been persisting to the southeast of the estimated center position. The intensity estimate of 45 kt is based on continuity from earlier scatterometer data and a Dvorak CI-number from TAFB. However, the low-level circulation of Gert is becoming increasingly disrupted by the much larger post-tropical cyclone Idalia. In fact, Gert may no longer have a closed circulation, and it is likely that the system will become absorbed by Idalia, and dissipate, later today. Gert is moving northward at a faster forward speed of around 21 kt. The cyclone should gradually turn northwestward with additional acceleration while it rotates around Idalia, before dissipating. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 37.6N 51.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 40.6N 53.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
