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| #1151660 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 AM 07.Sep.2023) TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023 200 PM CVT Thu Sep 07 2023 Visible and infrared satellite imagery depicts that showers and thunderstorms have become better organized around a well-defined low-level center associated with the low pressure area (AL96) that NHC has been tracking the past few days. Subjective satellite Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were both T2.0/30 kt. Given the better defined low-level center and these satellite estimates, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Fourteen over the far eastern Atlantic, with an initial intensity of 30 kt. The depression is moving generally west-northwest and this motion is forecast to continue over the next few days, with a decrease in forward speed and a turn to the north at the end of the forecast period, into a weakness in the tropical ridge. The guidance envelope is in fairly good agreement and the NHC track forecast lies between the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids. Tropical Depression Fourteen is forecast to be over warm sea surface temperatures near 28-29 degrees Celsius during the next several days. However, the depression will encounter some northerly vertical wind shear, and drier mid-level relative humidities along the current forecast track. Given the mixed environmental conditions the NHC forecast calls for gradual strengthening during the early part of the forecast but brings the system to hurricane strength before the end of the period. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 15.7N 26.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 16.4N 28.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 17.3N 31.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 18.5N 34.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 19.8N 37.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 21.0N 38.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 22.4N 40.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 26.1N 41.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 30.2N 42.7W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly/Camposano |
