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| #1151709 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 PM 07.Sep.2023) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023 800 PM CVT Thu Sep 07 2023 Visible and infrared satellite imagery have shown increasingly organized convection, with some convective bursts and curved banding features around the low-level center. Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB have increased to T2.5/35 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity is set at 35 kt, making the system a tropical storm. Tropical Storm Margot is currently moving west-northwestward, and this motion is forecast to continue over the next couple days. A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the north is indicated by the end of the forecast period as a weakness develops in the subtropical ridge over east-central Atlantic. The track guidance is in general agreement, and the NHC track forecast once again lies between the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids. Sea surface temperatures remain in the vicinity of 28C, but Margot could encounter moderate wind shear and drier mid-level relative humidities later in the forecast period. In general, these conditions are not expected to be too hostile, and gradual strengthening is indicated. The NHC wind speed forecast brings Margot to hurricane strength in two to three days. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 16.8N 28.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 17.5N 30.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 18.5N 33.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 19.8N 36.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 21.1N 38.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 10/0600Z 22.6N 39.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 24.4N 41.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 28.0N 42.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 31.5N 43.1W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly/Camposano |
