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| #1151811 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 AM 08.Sep.2023) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023 500 AM AST Fri Sep 08 2023 Deep convection has been gradually increasing near and to the north of the center of Margot during the past few hours. The satellite intensity estimates range from 30 to 38 kt, and based on that data, the initial wind speed is held at 35 kt. Margot is moving to the west-northwest at about 14 kt on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge. The storm is expected to gradually turn to the northwest and then the north as it moves toward a weakness in the ridge induced by a mid- to upper-level low over the central subtropical Atlantic. The models are in fairly good agreement, but there are some differences on where and when Margot makes the northward turn. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and near the middle of the guidance envelope. Global models show Margot strengthening for unconventional reasons. While there are sufficiently warm ocean water along the forecast track, deep-layer vertical wind shear is expected to be strong to moderate as the storm nears an upper-level low pressure. Typically, increased shear would lead to a weakening cyclone, but Margot could be positioned beneath an area of diffluence leading to increased convection and therefore, strengthening. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and near the IVCN and HCCA consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 17.4N 30.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 18.2N 33.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 19.4N 35.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 20.6N 37.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 21.9N 39.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 10/1800Z 23.5N 40.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 25.2N 41.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 28.3N 42.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 13/0600Z 31.4N 43.1W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi |
