Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #1151853 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 AM 08.Sep.2023) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 08 2023 Margot has not changed much this morning. Deep convection has persisted throughout the morning to the north and east of the low-level center. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates from SAB/TAFB and UW-CIMMS range from 30 to 40kt for this cycle. Using a blend of these estimates, the intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory. The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at about 15 kt as it traverses the southern edge of a mid-level ridge. Margot is expected to continue this general motion for the next day or so, after which it is expected to gradually turn northwestward this weekend and then northward by early next week. Global and regional models are in generally good agreement for the next several days, but toward the end of the forecast period the track guidance diverges significantly as uncertainty in the steering flow increases. The official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies near the center of the guidance envelope. The intensity forecast is complex. Sea surface temperatures are sufficiently warm along the forecast track, but vertical wind shear is expected to increase during the next day or so and remain strong throughout much of the forecast period. Despite the vertical wind shear, global and regional hurricane models are in generally good agreement that Margot will gradually intensify throughout the forecast period. The official intensity forecast is similar to the prior advisory and represents a blend of the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 18.0N 32.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 18.9N 34.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 20.1N 37.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 21.4N 39.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 22.7N 40.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 11/0000Z 24.3N 41.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 25.9N 42.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 28.8N 42.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 13/1200Z 31.8N 43.7W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Hogsett/Kelly |
