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| #1151916 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 08.Sep.2023) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023 500 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2023 Margot continues to be a disorganized tropical storm. Over the past few hours, visible satellite depicts the low-level center has become exposed with deep convection displaced to the northeast. This deep convection has continued to persist, however the system has not become better organized today. An earlier AMSR2 microwave pass showed that the structure of the system is fairly poor with very little banding features. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates from SAB/TAFB for this advisory were unchanged for this cycle. Given the disorganized structure and the satellite estimates, the initial intensity remains 35 kt for this advisory. The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at about 15 kt along the southern edge of a mid-level ridge. Margot is expected to continue this general motion for the next day or so. Afterwards a weakness in the ridge will allow for a turn more northwestward, then northward by early next week. Overall, models are in fairly good cross-track agreement in the short term. However beyond day 3, there begins to be some divergence in the model suite, due to uncertainty in the steering flow. The ECMWF lies on the left side of the envelope, while the GFS is on the right side. The official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies in the center of the guidance closest to the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids. The intensity forecast is fairly difficult given the mixed environmental conditions. Sea surface temperatures are sufficiently warm along the forecast track, but vertical wind shear is already impacting the system and is forecast to remain throughout much of the forecast period. Given the competing factors and current lack of organization, the intensity guidance shows only gradual strengthening throughout the forecast period. The official forecast is similar to the previous, near the intensity consensus aids the IVCN and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 18.8N 34.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 19.8N 36.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 21.0N 38.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 22.2N 40.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 23.6N 41.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 25.1N 41.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 26.9N 42.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 30.0N 42.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 13/1800Z 33.1N 43.4W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly |
