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| #1151960 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 PM 08.Sep.2023) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2023 Margot hasn't become any better organized during the last six hours. Deep convection is limited to the northeast quadrant of the sheared tropical storm. A pair of ASCAT passes showed winds up to 30 kt in the eastern half of the cyclone, but did not sample the location where the maximum winds are likely occuring. Satellite estimates from TAFB and the ADT were therefore used as the basis for the intensity for this advisory, which is still 35 kt. Despite the shear and some dry air around the tropical storm noted in water vapor imagery, all of the intensity guidance indicates that Margot will strengthen over the next few days. The NHC forecast therefore shows slow strengthening throughout the forecast period, similar to the previous advisory. Most of the models are similar to the NHC forecast, but both HAFS models are outliers, showing Margot strengthening to a major hurricane in 3-4 days. This appears unlikely at least within the next 3 days or so, given the expected wind shear and the current structure of the tropical storm. Therefore, the NHC forecast is very close to, but generally just below the intensity consensus. In contrast, there is higher confidence in the track forecast. All models indicate that Margot will continue its current west-northwestward motion for another day or so, and then turn north-northwestward to northward after that. The track model spread increases quickly beyond day 4, at which time confidence in the forecast is a little lower than normal. The model consensus hasn't changed much, so only small adjustments were made to the official track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 19.5N 35.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 20.4N 37.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 21.5N 39.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 22.6N 40.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 23.9N 41.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 11/1200Z 25.5N 42.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 27.0N 42.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 30.0N 43.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 14/0000Z 33.0N 43.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky |
