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| #1152101 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 PM 09.Sep.2023) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2023 Although Margot has not become significantly better organized since earlier today, recent scatterometer data indicate that it has strengthened slightly with maximum winds around 45 kt. The system continues to experience westerly shear that is at least partially associated with the upper-level outflow of Hurricane Lee. In spite of the shear, the center appears to be embedded within the main area of deep convection. However, the overall cloud pattern remains elongated from west-southwest to east-northeast and convective banding features are not well defined at this time. Center fixes indicate that the cyclone continues moving northwestward, or at about 315/8 kt. Over the next couple of days, Margot should turn north-northwestward to northward while passing through a break in the mid-level subtropical ridge. Later in the forecast period, the system's forward progress could be blocked by a ridge building to its northwest. Some of the track guidance models, notably the GFS, show Margot turning eastward around the end of the forecast period. The official track forecast has been shifted somewhat to the right of the previous NHC prediction, but is not as far east as the new GFS solution. This is between the simple and corrected dynamical consensus tracks. The dynamical guidance indicates that the vertical wind shear over Margot should remain moderate to strong for the next 48 hours or so. In 3 to 5 days the global models show an upper-level anticyclone developing over the system, which would favor intensification, although the mid-level humidities are forecast to be only marginally conducive by that time. Gradual strengthening is predicted, at just a slightly faster pace than the previous NHC forecast, and in good agreement with the latest intensity model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 21.6N 39.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 22.5N 39.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 23.9N 40.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 25.4N 40.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 27.0N 40.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 12/1200Z 28.8N 41.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 30.7N 41.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 14/0000Z 34.0N 41.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 15/0000Z 36.0N 40.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch |
