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| #1152170 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 AM 10.Sep.2023) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 10 2023 Shear continues to impact Margot's ability to become better organized. Visible satellite imagery this morning shows that the low-level center of the system remains on the southwestern edge of the deep convection. All the deep convection remains sheared to the northeast. A 1154 UTC scatterometer pass this morning, depicted a few wind barbs,that were not rain flagged, near 40 kt. Given the undersampling of this instrument, the intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory. This is in agreement with the latest subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of T3.0 from TAFB. Margot is currently within an environment of moderate vertical wind shear, which is inhibiting the organization of the system. Despite the less than favorable environment, the intensity guidance has been persistent in Margot gradually strengthening over the next few days as it enters a more favorable upper-level wind pattern, and continues over warm sea surface temperatures. The NHC forecast is for gradual strengthening and has Margot becoming a hurricane in about two days. This is in agreement with the corrected consensus HCCA, and IVCN intensity aids. Margot is expected continue to move north-northwestward to northward into a weakness in the central Atlantic subtropical ridge. Beyond day 3, Margot will begin to slow its forward motion as the steering pattern weakens. Towards the end of the forecast period, there remains quite a bit of cross-track model spread, and some models have the system meandering in the central Atlantic. There is higher than normal uncertainty in this time range. The NHC track forecast lies between the HFIP HCCA and simple consensus TVCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 23.0N 40.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 24.1N 40.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 25.8N 40.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 27.5N 40.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 29.5N 40.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 13/0000Z 31.6N 40.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 33.3N 41.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 14/1200Z 35.6N 41.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 15/1200Z 36.9N 41.7W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly |
