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#1152206 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 10.Sep.2023)
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023
2100 UTC SUN SEP 10 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 40.1W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 20SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 60SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 40.1W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 40.1W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.1N 40.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 26.8N 40.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 28.7N 40.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 30.8N 40.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 32.9N 40.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 34.3N 41.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 36.3N 41.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 37.2N 41.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 40.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY