|
Show Selection: |
| #1152209 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 10.Sep.2023) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023 500 PM AST Sun Sep 10 2023 Margot has become better organized this afternoon. Visible and infrared satellite imagery indicate that the low-level center has tucked up under the deep convection. A recent SSMI/S microwave pass depicts that there is well-defined curved banding around the center. Deep convection continues to burst near the center. Subjective and objective Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB are T/3.5 and T/3.0, respectively. Given the improved structure, this advisory will lean towards the higher end of these estimates and the initial intensity is raised to 55 kt. Margot is still within an environment of moderate southwesterly wind shear. The vertical wind shear is forecast to persist, but strengthening is forecast over the coming days as the system is entering a more favorable upper-level divergent wind pattern. Margot will continue to traverse warm sea surface temperatures throughout the forecast period, around 28 degrees Celsius. The NHC forecast is slightly higher in the short term, with Margot forecast to become a hurricane on Monday. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the HCCA and IVCN consensus intensity aids. Margot is moving northward at around 8 kt. A northward motion is expected to continue into a weakness in the central Atlantic subtropical ridge. In about 2 to 3 days, Margot's forward motion is forecast to slow down as the steering flow weakens. Towards the end of the forecast period, there remains considerably large cross-track model spread. The NHC track forecast lies between the consensus aids, with the system meandering over the central Atlantic. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 23.9N 40.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 25.1N 40.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 26.8N 40.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 28.7N 40.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 30.8N 40.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 13/0600Z 32.9N 40.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 34.3N 41.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 14/1800Z 36.3N 41.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 15/1800Z 37.2N 41.2W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly |
