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| #1152246 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 PM 10.Sep.2023) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 10 2023 Margot has been exhibiting a figure six cloud pattern on satellite imagery, with a dry slot wrapping around the eastern portion of the circulation. Central convection has not increased recently, and the system has become essentially co-located with an upper-level trough. The combination of Margot and the trough appears to have created an upper-level outflow channel over the northeast quadrant, but outflow is limited elsewhere. Subjective Dvorak classifications are T3.5 from both TAFB and SAB, corresponding to a current intensity of 55 kt. Objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are mostly a little lower, and there is no change to the current maximum winds for this advisory. The storm continues to move on a northward heading with a motion estimate of 360/7 kt. Margot should move generally northward through a weakness in the mid-level subtropical ridge for the next 48 to 72 hours with a gradual decrease in forward speed. In 3 to 5 days, a blocking high develops to the north of the tropical cyclone. This should result in a slow and possibly erratic motion late in the forecast period. The official forecast track, which is similar to the one from the previous advisory, is rather close to the latest dynamical model consensus, TVCA, objective aid. Global model predictions indicate that, over the next couple of days, the upper-level trough will shift south and southwest of Margot with anticyclonic upper-tropospheric flow developing over the system. This should be conducive for some strengthening, and the official forecast shows Margot becoming a hurricane soon and then intensifying a little more over the next 48 hours. This is in good agreement with the LGEM and consensus intensity models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 24.6N 39.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 26.0N 40.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 27.8N 40.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 29.8N 40.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 31.8N 40.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 13/1200Z 33.6N 41.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 14/0000Z 34.8N 41.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 15/0000Z 36.6N 41.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 16/0000Z 37.5N 40.8W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch |
