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| #1152320 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 AM 11.Sep.2023) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Margot Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM GMT Mon Sep 11 2023 Satellite images indicate that Margot is strengthening. A ragged eye has emerged from the central dense overcast pattern, although it is open on the east side. Additionally, overnight microwave data showed the eye pattern on numerous passes, suggesting this is a real eye feature. With the improvement in the satellite presentation, the initial wind speed is set to 60 kt, closest to the D-MINT intensity estimate from UW-CIMSS, but below recent Dvorak DT estimates of 65 kt. Margot is moving northward at about 9 kt, and that general motion should continue for the next few days, with a north-northwest bend expected by midweek as ridging builds to the east of the storm. A large mid-latitude ridge is forecast to block Margot's path after that time, causing the cyclone to basically stall by the weekend. Guidance is in very good agreement for the first few days, then the uncertainty grows in unsteady steering currents beneath the ridge, with aids fanning out in all directions. The new forecast is similar to the previous one, showing little motion at days 4-5 as a compromise between the various divergent model solutions. The storm has a chance to strengthen further over the next couple of days while it moves over relatively warm waters up to 28 deg C and in lessening shear. In a few days, an increase in shear and dry-air entrainment should gradually weaken Margot. This is an interesting forecast because the dynamical model guidance is well below the statistical guidance, despite a seemingly conducive environment for intensification. The new NHC forecast leans closer to the statistical models, adjusted a bit higher than the last NHC intensity prediction, similar to the Florida State Superensemble and NOAA corrected-consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 26.1N 40.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 27.6N 40.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 29.8N 40.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 31.9N 40.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 33.6N 41.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 14/0000Z 34.7N 41.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 14/1200Z 35.8N 41.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 15/1200Z 37.1N 40.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 16/1200Z 37.0N 41.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake/Taylor |
