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| #1152362 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 11.Sep.2023) TCDAT4 Hurricane Margot Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 900 PM GMT Mon Sep 11 2023 Satellite images this afternoon indicate that Margot continues to strengthen with a more defined eye present while recent microwave data shows improvement in the overall eye pattern. The latest TAFB Dvorak intensity estimate of 65 kt, combined with the improved satellite structure provides enough support to set the initial wind speed at 65 kt this forecast cycle, making Margot the fifth hurricane of the Atlantic season. Margot is moving northward at about 10 kt. This motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days before a slowing trend occurs as Margot bends to the north-northwest due to a building ridge to the east of the hurricane. Further slowing in the storm's motion is expected by this weekend as a large mid-latitude ridge blocks its path, effectively stalling the system. Beyond that time, there continues to be uncertainty in the track with the various model guidance showing a wide spread of possible solutions. The new forecast lies near the previous NHC track, shifted a bit to the west at long range. The environment will continue to become more conducive for further strengthening over the next 36 to 48 hours, with a gradual decrease in vertical shear expected while Margot remains over relatively warm waters of around 28 deg C. Beyond 72 hours, increasing shear and drier air working into the system is likely to weaken Margot some. The new forecast shows an increase in intensity through 48 hours based on the expected favorable environment and higher statistical guidance, leaning toward the Florida State Superensemble and NOAA corrected-consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 27.0N 39.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 28.5N 39.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 30.7N 40.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 32.6N 40.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 34.1N 41.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 14/0600Z 35.2N 41.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 36.0N 41.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 37.1N 40.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 16/1800Z 37.0N 41.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Taylor/Blake |
