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| #1152417 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:38 PM 11.Sep.2023) TCDAT4 Hurricane Margot Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023 300 AM GMT Tue Sep 12 2023 Margot has continued to become better organized over the past several hours. The eye is becoming a little more distinct, and inner-core convection has intensified somewhat, with cooling cloud tops. Convective banding features are evident, particularly over the southeastern portion of the circulation. Upper-level outflow is well defined over the northern semicircle of the system. The current intensity estimate is now 70 kt which is a blend of subjective Dvorak classification estimates from TAFB and SAB. Recent center fixes show a slight rightward wobble in the track but the longer-term motion estimate is generally northward or 010/10 kt. Margot is expected to move northward to north-northwestward between two subtropical high pressure areas over the next few days. Later in the forecast period, a blocking mid-level high pressure system develops to the north of the tropical cyclone. This will cause Margot to move rather slowly and perhaps erratically over the subtropical Atlantic in the 4-5 day time frame. The official track forecast is fairly close to the previous NHC prediction and generally follows the multi-model TVCN consensus solution. Global models indicate that the upper-level tropospheric flow over Margot should be conducive for some more strengthening during the next 36 hours or so, with diffluent anticyclonic winds aloft over the system. The official intensity forecast is about the same as the previous one and remains close to the model consensus. The statistical-dynamical guidance DSHIPS suggests that the hurricane could become a little stronger than shown here. Later in the period, increasing shear and cooler ocean waters will likely cause a weakening trend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 28.0N 39.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 29.7N 39.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 31.8N 40.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 33.4N 41.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 34.6N 41.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 14/1200Z 35.6N 41.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 36.5N 41.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 37.3N 41.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 17/0000Z 38.5N 42.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch |
