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| #1152537 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 PM 12.Sep.2023) TCDAT4 Hurricane Margot Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023 900 PM GMT Tue Sep 12 2023 As quickly as it re-appeared earlier today, Margot's eye disappeared again this evening. Consequently, Dvorak-based intensity estimates have decreased a little, with a blend of Data-T and Current Intensity values supporting an intensity near 70 kt. Based on recent AMSR microwave imagery, Margot still has a double eyewall, and a SAR overpass earlier this morning indicated that the winds in the outer eyewall were just as high as the inner one. Margot has continued moving northward today, and should turn north-northwestward tomorrow. Beyond about 60 h, there is a significant increase in model forecast spread, and therefore, forecast uncertainty. The ECMWF and GFS highlight this uncertainty, showing very different forecasts for a ridge that is supposed to build to the north of Margot over the next 3 days, which results in a very different track for the hurricane. However, ensemble forecasts from those models indicate that their deterministic model solutions are part of a wide spectrum of possible tracks for Margot. The ECMWF track ensemble, for instance, has approximately 27 degrees of latitude spread between members at 120 h. We don't have a clear reason to favor any one solution at this time, so the NHC forecast is near the multi-model consensus. It is possible that large track adjustments will be needed to future NHC forecasts. For the next few days, Margot's intensity should stay relatively steady, and this is supported by nearly every normally-reliable intensity model. Beyond about 72 h, the track of Margot will have an influence on its intensity, which increases the uncertainty. Depending on the exact evolution and path of Margot, it could hold its intensity for a bit longer, or quickly begin a transition to a remnant low. The NHC forecast is in the middle of these solutions, showing steady weakening, but the uncertainty in the intensity forecast is also unusually high. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 31.7N 39.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 33.2N 40.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 34.4N 41.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 35.4N 41.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 36.4N 40.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 15/0600Z 37.1N 40.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 37.5N 41.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 38.1N 42.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 40.0N 43.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky |
