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| #1152575 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 PM 12.Sep.2023) TCDAT4 Hurricane Margot Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023 300 AM GMT Wed Sep 13 2023 Margot's satellite appearance has improved since the previous advisory. Infrared imagery indicates deep convection wraps around the center, with cold cloud tops. Infrared and proxy-vis satellite depict that an eye may also be trying to reappear. A recent scatterometer pass shows that the system continues to have a very large wind field. Subjective Dvorak estimates for this cycle were T4.0/T4.5 from TAFB and SAB, respectively. Using a blend of these estimates and the improved satellite appearance, the initial intensity for this advisory is raised to 75 kt. Margot has started to move north-northwestward, and should continue this motion with a slightly slower forward speed on Wednesday. In about 2 to 3 days, there continues to be significant divergence in the guidance envelope, and therefore there is higher than normal forecast uncertainty. A ridge is forecast to build north of Margot over the next couple of days. The GFS and ECMWF have two very different solutions with how Margot interacts with this ridge, and are on opposite sides of the guidance suite. The current NHC forecast has not been adjusted much from the previous one, which remains near the multi-model consensus aids, as there is no reason to favor either global model solution at this time. It is possible that larger track adjustments will be needed to future NHC forecasts. Margot's intensity should stay relatively steady, with slight fluctuations, up or down, during the next several days. The intensity guidance is in fairly good agreement in the short-term. However, in about 2 to 3 days, similar to the track forecast there is uncertainty in the intensity forecast as they are dependent on one another. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and lies near the multi-model consensus showing steady weakening towards the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 32.7N 39.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 34.0N 40.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 35.1N 40.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 36.1N 40.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 36.9N 40.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 15/1200Z 37.3N 40.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 37.5N 40.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 38.4N 42.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 40.6N 42.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly |
