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| #1152892 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:32 PM 14.Sep.2023) TCDAT4 Hurricane Margot Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142023 300 AM GMT Fri Sep 15 2023 The satellite depiction of Margot has become more ragged this evening. After a brief increase in convection earlier today, recent infrared imagery shows that the convective banding has become more broken as dry air wraps into the system. The system has also crossed over a tongue of cooler SSTs, which is limiting deep convection. With what convection remains the cloud tops have been warming the past few hours. Subjective Dvorak satellite estimates were CI 3.5/4.0 from SAB and TAFB, respectively. Given the satellite depiction and the current intensity satellite estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 65 kt for this advisory. Margot has started to make the forecasted clockwise loop in the central Atlantic, with a current estimated motion of 070/3 kt. A ridge over the north Atlantic is responsible for Margot slowing down and then starting a clockwise loop which will last the next few days. The aforementioned ridge will eventually shift eastward and Margot should then begin to more northeastward towards the end of the forecast period. While the overall track pattern has come into better agreement, there remains along-track speed differences, with the GFS being the fastest and further northeast. No big changes to the track forecast were made from the previous one, with only slight adjustments to trend towards the model consensus aids. Margot is encountering a fairly hostile environment with low mid-level relative humidity values and moderate wind shear. Margot has also crossed a cold tongue of SSTs in the central Atlantic, and given the slow motion it will also cross its own upwelled cooler wake. Given the unfavorable conditions, the system should continue to gradually weaken throughout the period, likely becoming a tropical storm in the next 12-24 h. Margot should become a post-tropical cyclone at some point early next week. However, model simulated satellite still depicts bursts of convection from time to time, and until there is better agreement, the official forecast keeps the post-tropical extratropical transition at Day 5, although this could occur sooner. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 36.9N 38.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 36.7N 38.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 36.1N 38.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 35.6N 39.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 35.4N 41.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 17/1200Z 35.5N 42.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 36.5N 43.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 39.2N 41.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 40.1N 35.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Kelly |
