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| #1152893 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:33 PM 14.Sep.2023) TCMAT4 HURRICANE MARGOT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142023 0300 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.9N 38.9W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 50 KT.......100NE 130SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT.......170NE 200SE 120SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 300SW 330NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.9N 38.9W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.9N 39.0W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 36.7N 38.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 110SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 36.1N 38.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 150SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 35.6N 39.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...170NE 130SE 130SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 35.4N 41.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 35.5N 42.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 36.5N 43.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 39.2N 41.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 40.1N 35.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.9N 38.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY |
