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| #1152954 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:39 PM 15.Sep.2023) TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152023 2100 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 44.0W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 44.0W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 43.7W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.7N 45.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.5N 46.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 20.4N 48.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 22.0N 50.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 23.6N 51.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 25.1N 53.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 28.0N 57.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 32.0N 59.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 44.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
